Saturday, June 30, 2007

Real Estate Boom in Tajikistan



During my last trip to Tajikistan this year, I have been approached many times by people who wanted to partner up with me to invest in real estate. Apparently the price of an average residential real estate in Tajikistan (especially in Dushanbe) has doubled in the past 8 months.

That plus the number of recent commercial and residential property built in the capital makes me wonder if we are in for a real estate boom and, if so, I wonder how long will it last (and at what rate)?

The difficulty with investing in Tajikistan is that there is no hard evidence available to show the recent price dynamics of real estate. Evey piece of price information I have been able to get was basically word of mouth.

The good thing is that, whatever the underlying factors, the demand for real estate is less likely to be speculative. For one thing institutionalized rel estate investing (represented in other countries by hedge funds, etc.) which could potentially fuel speculative purchasing is nonexistent in Tajikistan.

I have been doing some number crunching to see whether investing in real estate makes sense. With an investment horizon of say two years, the biggest risk will be not being able to sell the property.

The country has been stable politically for the past several years but the risk still exists. Unfortunately, there is not much one can do about political risks (except not take them?). I am not sure I could get political insurance for a speculative project like this from MIGA.

Anyway, there is however a structure that could makes sense. An average 5BR apartment in Dushanbe costs around $75-90K. In order to maximize ROI, the potential investor would have to buy residential real estate with internationals tenants. International organizations offer generous packages to their staff in the field.

So, I figure monthly rate for a nicely furnished apartment should easily fetch up to $800-1000? The IRR in this scenario from just rental payments would be 14% for the period of 48 month, which means the investor will not only be able to recoup his investments but also make an average of 14% return on his investments.

Financing such a project is no easy task. Debt could be an option though (since rental payments should be able to cover the monthly payments), but again I don't know how much banks would charge as interest for such cases. Will they do it?

I am more inclined to get equity money for this. This way risks and rewards would be evenly distributed. Plus no matter how you look at it this IS an equity risk. A very good one though!

141 comments:

Elizabeth said...

You mention that there's no real estate infrastructure to fuel a bubble.

But there is a huge cash inflow from moderate-sized investors who are trafficking drugs to Russia, and who have nowhere to invest their money except for in an apartment in Dushanbe.

This has raised prices a lot.

$ylon said...

If there is drug money involved, I don't think it would be enough to cause such a drastic increase in prices.

My take is that population in geneal is bringing home more money (from Russia). In any case the demand is genuine. People need housing and there isn't a large percentage of speculative buyers, whose actions could sway the market pendulum one way or another.

Elizabeth said...

"My take is that population in geneal is bringing home more money (from Russia)."

But the amounts that many are bringing home- especially the mid-level mules who might earn, say, $30,000 or $40,000- cannot be stuck under a matress. They cannot be invested in productive business as that would call attention to the individual. They are not investing in the countryside, where land is mainly owned by local dehqon farmers (khans) and where it cannot be sold on short notice.

They are investing in the city.

People do need housing, but there is no housing being built, except in the suburbs, where prices are still ridiculously low ($2000 - $5000 for 1/5 of a hectare with a view, and water and electricity forthcoming). The only housing being built in the center is empty and is not being bought. The $500,000 apartments are simply not being sold- they've been on the market for over a year, only a hundred or so, and they are still advertising.

Why? Because the increase from $5,000 to $50,000 was fueled not by speculation, but by the fact that people were selling apartments to go to Russia, and they were selling them to people who had earned cash in Russia.

I agree that there is not a large percent of speculative buyers for the short term. People buy apartments for the long-term.

But this betrays the shallow nature of the market. Tajiks generally would prefer to live just outside the city, in a hawli, but they cannot spend all of their money on that because of the land laws (the prices are too low and you can only buy one plot per person).

So though it is not a typical bubble, it is a shallow market nonetheless. It is not for housing that they are buying apartments, except in the case of nouveau riche Kulobis, who are able to get jobs in the capital. But that's another story.

Anonymous said...

Financing such a project is no easy task. Debt could be an option though (since rental payments should be able to cover the monthly payments), but again I don't know how much banks would charge as interest for such cases. Will they do it?
is there banks what would give you such amount ? i dont think they dont provide with such loans P.S specialy for foreingers?

$ylon said...

well, I think for banks in the US it does not matter where you come from. As long as you can reasonably prove that you have a stable income or property, you should be able to get a loan...

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How much to buy a single family home in a good area, of Dushanbe?

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